Does David Cameron have a problem in the North?

The inconclusive 2010 general election saw voting in the UK divide on regional (and to some extent national) lines with the Conservatives failing to make significant gains in the North of England.  An interesting article in this month’s Prospect magazine by Peter Kellner, head of YouGov, draws together a lot of data on attitudes in the North of England compared to those in the South, and reveals that on a diverse range of issues including welfare benefits, tax and spend, the role of the private sector, public ownership of the railways, and support for gay marriage, people in the North have more left-wing/progressive attitudes than those in the South. Some of this is quite striking, for example, unskilled manual workers in the South are just as likely to vote Conservative as white collar/managerial workers in the North. However, on most indicators, although the North appears more left-wing, the differences are marginal and probably not statistically significant, with one notable exception, attitudes towards Cameron and the coalition government. Northerners were significantly more likely to say that Cameron is out of touch and lacking in clear principles, and much more likely to say that the Conservatives care more about the rich.

It is possible for the Conservatives to secure a majority in the next general election without a significant increase in support in the North, particularly if they make gains against the Liberal Democrats in the South, which they might well do. However, whether that would be good for British democracy, or more particularly for the people of the North of England, is another question.

There is, of course, a land further North, where the Conservatives are even less popular, but that is a question for another day.

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The rise in the payroll vote

The recent Cabinet reshuffle once again raised concerns about the size of the Government, and in particular its impact on the Executive’s power to control parliament through what has become known as the payroll vote. The payroll vote refers to all of those MPs and Peers who make up the Government and includes all Ministers as well as Whips and Parliamentary Private Secretaries (PPS). The convention of collective responsibility means that those holding these posts do not oppose Government policy and thereby provide the Government with a large block of guaranteed support, and votes, in Parliament. The relative lack of power of the House of Lords, coupled with the difficulty of  maintaining discipline in a Chamber where members are appointed for life, means that the bulk of these posts are located in the House of Commons where they can have the greatest impact. However, critics point out that by stacking the numbers in the Government’s favour in this way Parliament’s ability to provide independent scrutiny is undermined.

Government Ministers, Parliamentary Private Secretaries and indeed Whips can, and occasionally do, vote against the Government. For example, three coalition PPSs voted against the introduction of £9000 tuition fees in 2010 (two Lib-Dems and one Conservative). However, such actions are rare and the individuals concerned must resign from the Government. This in effect means setting aside any ambitions they may have for promotion, and is arguably a much more serious decision for those who have already begun to ascend the Ministerial ladder, than for those backbench MPs who may have less ambition, or at least less prospect, of obtaining Ministerial office. It may also be the case that MPs who are part of the Government are more likely to support policies which they feel part of, which may of course be why they have been brought into the government in the first place.

The payroll vote has grown considerably over the last century. The graph below, which is drawn from a dataset put together from The Guardian’s excellent datablog, shows how the size of the payroll vote as a percentage of the total membership of the House of Commons has grown since the start of the last century, from 6% of the House in 1900 to 21% of the current House of Commons. What is even more striking is the increase in the proportion of MPs from the governing party who have been drawn into the government. In 1900 only 6% of governing party MPs were members of the Government; 33 of these were Ministers and 9 were Parliamentary Private Secretaries. Under the current coalition government 95 MPs hold Ministerial posts, and 43 are Parliamentary Private Secretaries, with the result that 39% of coalition MPs are part of the Government. If we break that down according to the two parties in the coalition, 38% of Conservative MPs and 43% of Liberal Democrats are members of the Government. payroll

Interestingly, there are limits on the number of paid Ministerial posts. This was set out in the Ministerial and other salaries Act 1975, which limited the number of Cabinet Ministers to 22, and the total number of Ministerial posts to 84, along with 3 law officers and 22 Whips. This effectively sought to limit the size of the Government across both Houses to 109. However, this only limits the number of paid Ministerial posts. One way in which governments have increased the size of the payroll vote has been to appoint unpaid Ministers. The last Government to have less than the statutory 109 Ministers was the Conservative government of John Major in 1992. The current government has 12 unpaid Ministerial posts. Some of these are individuals who hold two posts in the Government and so still collect a salary for one of them. Grant Shapps for example, is an unpaid for his role as Minister without Portfolio, but does pick up a salary and attend Cabinet as Chair of the Conservative Party. Similarly, Jo Johnson (Boris’s brother) is an unpaid Parliamentary Secretary in the Cabinet Office, but is also an Assistant Whip for which he receives a Whips salary.

The number of posts which are held by individuals is also interesting. There are in total 131 posts in the current Government, including Whips. However, 10 members of the Government have two posts. Although this doesn’t lead to an increase in the size of the payroll vote, indeed, quite the opposite, it does mean that if these posts were redistributed on the basis of one-member one-post, the Government could, without the need to create any new posts, bring an additional 10 individuals into the Government. Although this is unlikely to happen overnight it is one way in which the Government could relatively quietly expand the payroll vote.

Another way which successive governments have expanded the payroll vote has been through the appointment of Parliamentary Private Secretaries. The increase in the number of these unpaid Ministerial aides has been perhaps the most significant means by which successive governments have expanded the payroll vote. Creating new PPSs is a relatively easy way of rewarding loyalty, and as long as their number does not exceed the number of Ministers, there is considerable scope for making new appointments. There are currently 43 PPSs, more than one for every two Ministerial posts in the House of Commons, although there has been a slight fall in numbers since the coalition was formed in 2010. The coalition has also been somewhat better at providing information about how many and who the PPSs are. This information, along with details of Special Political Advisors, has in the past been quite difficult to track down and as part of its pledge for greater transparency the current government has published lists. Although they have yet to publish a list following the recent reshuffle and the data presented here is based on 2012. PPS

The continued growth in the payroll vote is, however, disappointing. A series of bodies including the Public Administration Select Committee, the Hansard Society and the Conservative Party’s own Commission to Strengthen Parliament have called for a reduction in the size of the government. Yet as The Guardian pointed out last year, this may well be the largest government ever.

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The least glamorous job in Parliament?

Spare a thought for the poor Parliamentary Private Secretary, perhaps the least glamorous job in British politics. These unpaid Ministerial aides have all the responsibility of being part of the Government, with none of the power. Their job is to support their Minister, they sit on the Minister’s shoulder in the Chamber, check facts, pass notes, and nod vigorously at the appropriate moment. With no departmental responsibilities they don’t get to speak on behalf of the Government in the House of Commons, and for fear of embarassing the Minister they rarely make personal interventions, and they have none of the Whips’ powers to make threats or offer rewards. They are in some respects little more than neutered backbenchers. The job of PPS is, however, generally seen as the first step on the Ministerial ladder, and is widely coveted by those MPs who wish to climb the greasy pole, which is most of them. Time served as a PPS, it is hoped, will lead on to bigger and better things, although this can be a long process with some MPs working their way slowly up the PPS ladder before being elevated to a Ministerial post. In the recent reshuffle, for example, Ben Gummer MP, was ‘promoted’ from PPS to the Minister for International Development to PPS to Michael Gove, Secretary of State for Education. A number of PPSs moved up the ladder to the Whips office, including Gavin Barwell and Sam Gyimah, although none moved on to Ministerial posts. Some of course, may never make it, but must content themselves with their brief moment close to power.

In his memoirs, Tony Blair writes fondly of his Parliamentary Private Secretaries, although I think it’s fair to say that none are household names:

[Bruce Grocott] was and is a wonderful guy – really sincere, decent and absolutely Labour to the innermost part of his being. In fact the best of traditional Labour He had been Mo Mowlam’s inspired suggestion for my PPS. It was a great choice. (Bruce was succeeded by two equally great choices, David Hanson and Keith Hill).  David was a great networker, respected even by those who disagreed passionately with me; and also a very tuned-in politician in his own right. Keith was a witty, lovable and really tough operator who hid his toughness beneath the wit; but the toughness was there when you needed it. Keith’s great joke, which I found more amusing when I had left office, was to come and get me for PMQs at 11.57 precisely, throwing the door open and saying like a town crier: ‘Prime Minister a grateful nation now awaits.’ Tony Blair, A Journey, p.97.

For others, however, even those serving as PPS to the Prime Minister, it must seem a long way from the glamour of office. Gavin Williamson, who became PPS to the Prime Minister in the recent reshuffle received the following withering introduction to his role from the Speaker during this week’s PMQs:

Order. May I just say to the Prime Minister’s Parliamentary Private Secretary that his role is to nod his head in the appropriate places, and to fetch and carry notes? No noise is required.

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Who really runs Britain?

Interesting article by Owen Jones in The Independent over the weekend, in which the threatened closure of the Grangemouth oil refinery prompts him to question who really runs the country?

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A message from GOD

An interesting speech by former Cabinet Secretary, Gus O’Donnell, (referred to by some in Whitehall as GOD) published in the latest edition of Political Quarterly, generated a certain amount of publicity this week. There were a number of thought provoking ideas in O’Donell’s speech including that Government’s should measure the success of policies on the basis of ‘wellbeing’ rather than the impact on GDP, that politicians have an (understandable) bias towards the old, and that the coalition has been characterised by  constitutional inertia. However, the point, and it was a very brief point, which attracted all the attenion was his suggestion that those wanting to stand for parliament should meet certain, unspecified, qualification criteria. This, not surprisingly, attracted a certain amount of derision not least from MPs , most of which I think was largely justified. However, O’Donnell follows this by identifying the need for better training for MPs and potential Ministers and in this raises an important issue, the solution for which doesn’t threaten democracy. When they arrive at Westminster, new MPs get very little training, aside from some instruction in the operation of the parliamentary IT systems, and some Party briefings. There is then a clear need for more effective training in order to make Parliament more effective at holding the Government to account. Similarly, more effective training for Government Ministers might help in the development of more effective policy, which is O’Donnell’s point. It might also better equip Ministers to ensure that the civil service acts in the interests of Government and not the other way around, which O’Donnell doesn’t exactly say. Interstingly, the point about training was raised in 2007 by a young Cabinet Office Minister in the previous Labour Government, named Ed Miliband.

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