Some reflections on Prime Ministerial power

Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair were two of the most powerful Prime Ministers of recent times. Both led their parties to three general election victories with substantial majorities, and neither was defeated at the ballot box. Yet both were arguably to some degree forced from office by factors beyond their control. While Blair would probably claim that he left office at a time of his choosing, this is a moot point, Thatcher certainly did not want to leave. Their careers offer some interesting perspectives on the nature and vulnerabilities of the Prime Minister, which both have have reflected on in their memoirs. Thatcher, clearly bitter at the manner of her departure, emphasises the important of keeping the support of the Cabinet:

Though I had never been defeated in a general election, retained the support of the Party in the country, and had just won the support of a majority of the Party in Parliament… I had lost the Cabinet’s support. I could not even muster a credible campaign team. It was the end.

Margaret Thatcher, The Downing Street Years, pp.849, 855.

Her comments are echoed in this, somewhat longer, explanation by the former Cabinet Secretary, Richard Wilson:

You may have times, as we had times, when prime ministers have been so strong that their colleagues accepted anything they wanted to do; they had a parliamentary back bench which was supportive of whatever they did; public opinion was happy; the economy was going well. Their ability to get their way was therefore unparalleled, but that does not alter the fundamental fact that if circumstances are different and a prime minister is in a weak position, his cabinet colleagues are debating the issues strongly, it is not possible for the prime minister to have his way and we are not in a country where the prime minister is a president and can just say “This is what happens and this is what goes.” We are always fundamentally in a position where if cabinet ministers wish to assert themselves then the power of the prime minister will be checked and balanced in that way.

Sir Richard Wilson, Cabinet Secretary 1998-2002, quoted in Jones and Norton, The New British Politics, 7th ed., p.398.

Another former Conservative Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan, is widely claimed to have replied to a question from a journalist about what he feared most with the comment, ‘events, dear boy, events.’ Although it is not clear whether Macmillan ever actually said this, the point is nevertheless well made. In this interesting extract from Blair’s memoirs, he points out that it is not so much the events as when they occur that matters, which to some extent reflects the comments of Richard Wilson above. In his early years Blair rode out some storms, notably over formula 1 and tobacco advertising, which could have been much more damaging had they fallen later in the electoral cycle:

The difference between beginning and end is not – major crises like war excepted – simply in the nature of the events themselves. In other words, an event – let’s say a scandal – can occur at the start, and because everyone is still in the throes of excitement at the new government it can be overcome reasonably easily. If it occurs later, it can be terminal. It depends less on the nature of the events than on their place in the cycle. The adversity, the intensity of the criticism, the fullness of the attack grow not in proportion to the decisions of leadership but rather to the chipping away over time of its freshness, its appeal, its novelty and thus its persuasive power.

Tony Blair (2010), A Journey, London: Hutchinson, p.123.

The lack of control over external factors is to some extent the product of the tendency on the part of recent governments, notably but not only the Blair governments, to give power away, to Europe, the devolved assemblies, the Bank of England and so on. A number of commentators have pointed to his ‘hollowing out’ of the state as being a contributory factor in the decline in public support for politicians and falling electoral turnout, on the grounds that why vote for someone if they don’t have the power to make a difference? This is a particular problem for local government, but also for national politicians, although they are of course complicit in this, as is illustrated in this quote from the former Labour Secretary of State for Constitutional Affairs, Lord Falconer.

What governs our approach is a clear desire to place power where it should be: increasingly not with politicians, but with those best fitted in different ways to deploy it. Interest rates are not set by politicians in the Treasury, but by the bank of England. Minimum wages are not determined by the Department of Trade and Industry, but by the Low Pay Commission. Membership of the House of Lords will be determined not in Downing Street but in an independent Appointments Commission. This depoliticising of key decision-making is a vital element in bringing power closer to the people.

Lord Falconer, Secretary of State for Constitutional Affairs, 2003, quoted in C. Hay (2007), Why We Hate Politics. Cambridge, Polity, p.93.

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Taking their leave – how do Prime Ministers leave office?

While considering the power of the Prime Minister I jotted down this brief list of Prime Ministerial departures since Neville Chamberlain in 1940. It does offer one perspective on where the power lies. While governments always leave office at the ballot box, Prime Ministers certainly do not, although not all of those who resigned were forced from office, Churchill and Macmillan for example resigned due to ill health. It is striking to compare this with US Presidents in same period, all but three of whom served full terms of office, the exceptions being Franklin Roosevelt who died in office, Kennedy who was assassinated and Nixon who resigned.

Chamberlain (Con) – resigned

Attlee (Lab) – election defeat

Churchill (Con)- resigned

Eden (Con) – resigned

Macmillan (Con) – resigned

Douglas-Home (Con) – election defeat

Wilson (Lab) – election defeat

Heath (Con) – election defeat

Wilson (Lab) – resigned

Callaghan (Lab) – election defeat

Thatcher (Con) – resigned

Major (Con) – election defeat

Blair (Lab) – resigned

Brown (Lab) – election defeat

Resigned/retired – 7      Defeated – 7

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From The West Wing to Reservoir Dogs: Executive Power under Blair

At times during his time as Prime Minister Tony Blair was criticised for his reliance on a small coterie of political advisors and his apparent sidelining of the Cabinet, to the extent that several commentators observed that Number 10 often took on the appearance of the US political drama The West Wing rather than the more collegial system of Cabinet Government which usually characterises the British system. One striking illustration of this came in a book by the former editor of The Times, Peter Stothard, which looked at the run-up to the war in Iraq in 2003. At a key moment in the Iraq crisis Stothard and the documentary photographer, Nick Danziger, were allowed to follow the Prime Minister around for a month as he shuttled between London and Washington and sought to secure Commons support for military action in Iraq. Stothard’s book was serialised in The Times on 3 May 2003 (if you have access) but perhaps more striking than the narrative is Nick Danziger’s collection of photographs, later exhibited under the banner Blair at War. The full collection of around a hundred photos used to be available on Danziger’s website, there is now a much smaller selection available to view but they are no less striking for that. On one level Danziger’s photographs offer a seductive insight of an all too human Prime Minister, playing his guitar in Downing Street surrounded by his young son’s toys, drinking tea from chipped mugs and composing his ‘back me or I quit’ speech surrounded by photos of his children. One obvious theme is the loneliness of leadership, particularly when making difficult decisions. The first photo in the collection which shows Blair sitting on his own in an RAF helicopter was used for the cover both of The Times magazine which ran the story, and Stothard’s book.

However, another noticeable feature of these photos, which was not missed by observers at the time, was of a Prime Minister whose main source of support and advice was not his Cabinet, but a small group of advisors. In a number of shots, including 7, 9, 10 and 11 in this selection, we see Blair surrounded by the same small group, usually comprising his press secretary Alistair Campbell, David Manning his foreign policy advisor, Jonathan Powell his Chief of Staff, his speechwriter Peter Hyman (now head of a free school), and Sally Morgan his political advisor. The key impression to some, was of a Presidential figure taking important decisions on the basis of the advice of an inner court of unelected and largely appointed special advisors, while the Cabinet was marginalised. The image is reinforced if we contrast these shots with shot 12 which shows the Cabinet drinking tea, apparently outside the room where the real action is taking place. The Presidential feel is further enhanced by shots of Blair with US President George Bush. Although few of these are now included in the selection on Danziger’s website, the famous Reservoir Dogs shot, number 18, has to be seen. Sadly the photo of the leather-jacketed Leader of the House, John Reid,  looking like an enforcer getting instructions to go out and beat up someone for crossing the head guy has gone.

The photos and Stothard’s commentary prompted a sharp response from some quarters. I distinctly remember listening to an attack on Blair’s Presidential style by International Development Secretary, Clare Short, on the Today programme on Radio 4 just after Stothard’s book was serialised and her reference to the impression given by the article and Danziger’s photographs. I have tried in vain to find a copy of Clare Short’s comments on the Today programme, although this article from The Daily Telegraph refers to them. Blair survived all of this, but the impression of his detached Presidential style, which was in part created by coverage such as this, certainly stuck.

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Who’s pulling the wool over our eyes?

For a while today the most read story on The Guardian website was a piece implying that the government had suggested that in the wake of the recent energy price rises people should put on a jumper to keep the bills down. The story originated with the Secretary of State for energy and climate change, Ed Davey, who it was reported said he wore a jumper at home to keep the bills down.  The Guardian reported that that Prime Minister’s spokesman, perhaps aware of the potential damage such suggestions might cause, refused to be drawn on the issue. However, in The Daily Telegraph, a much more forthright report appeared under the byline, ‘David Cameron believes that millions of people facing rising energy bills should consider “wrapping up warm” and wearing jumpers’. This time, referring to the same press briefing, it was claimed the PM’s spokesman had indeed suggested people should pull on a jumper to save money. So far, nothing unusual. The story fits with a common narrative about an out of touch government insensitive to the difficulties of the poor, and the fact that the same story appeared in newspapers representing opposite sides of the political spectrum suggested it must be true. However, this report by the BBC’s political correspondent Chris Mason, presents a quite different account of the same story…

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Reasons to be thankful there’s no separation of powers in the UK

shutdown1Tomorrow morning, several hundred thousand employees of the US federal government will return to work. Aside from the politics of the moment, the federal government shutdown is in many respects the product of the US Constitution, and in particular the principle of the separation of powers which ensures that power is not concentrated in the hands of any one branch of government but is shared between the executive (the President), the legislature (Congress) and the judiciary (the Supreme Court). This means that the various branches of government need to work together in order to ensure that legislation is passed, treaties are ratified and budgets approved. Unfortunately, if the various branches of government can’t agree then the system breaks down. In the case of the recent shutdown, the Republicans, who control the lower house of Congress – the House of Representatives – failed to approve the federal budget before the end of the US fiscal year on 30 September, with the result that there was no money available to keep the federal government running. As a result a large proportion of the 7 million employees of the federal government were told to stay at home without pay. This included non-essential staff from a diverse range of services from the Pentagon to the National Parks. Tourists were prevented from visiting sites such the Lincoln Memorial  in Washington and the Statue of Liberty in New York, although the latter reopened late last week when the City of New York agreed to foot the bill. Perhaps more significantly groups like armed services veterans didn’t receive their benefits cheques and offices responsible for monitoring environmental and public health closed. This was a wide-ranging and significant halt to services not just in Washington but across the USA, and the situation was compounded by the fact that no-one, aside perhaps from a small group of Republicans in Congress, was in a position to predict when services might be resumed.

A similar shutdown in the UK, where the state provides a much wider range of services, would be catastrophic but is also highly unlikely, not because British politics is any less polarised than in the US, but because in the UK the government generally gets its way. Unlike in the US, where the executive and the legislature are elected separately and may therefore be controlled by different parties, in the UK the executive is drawn from the largest party in the lower house of the legislature, with the result that the Prime Minister retains control of the House of Commons. Although the size of the government’s majority may dictate the government’s freedom of manoevre they are unlikely to be frustrated on a daily basis or blocked entirely as the Republicans have done to Obama in the House of Representatives. If the Government were to lose a vote on the budget this would likely trigger a confidence vote and a general election long before the money ran out to keep services going.  One possible source of such a brake on executive power is the House of Lords, which was, until recently, dominated by the Conservatives, and in which no party now holds a majority. The Lords is therefore, in a position to frustrate the government’s legislative agenda, in the way that Obama has been frustrated by a Republican controlled lower house.  However, another feature of the unwritten British constitution is the Salisbury convention, an unwritten agreement whereby the House of Lords will not vote down at second or third reading a Government bill which was a manifesto commitment. Perhaps more significantly the upper house will not hold up a money bill for more than a month. While there is considerable scope for interpretation in this, not least around what constitutes a money bill, it is safe to assume that this would encompass the budget. Interestingly, reforms to the House of Lords which have enhanced its legitimacy have put a strain on the Salisbury convention in recent years. Nevertheless, as long as the Government retains control of the Commons and the Salisbury convention holds in the Lords, the kind of shutdown witnessed in the US is unlikely.

There are many reasons why all of this may be a bad thing, encapsulated in Lord Hailsham’s famous characterisation of the British system as an elective dictatorship. However, it does mean that Britain doesn’t suffer the kind of constitutional blockage witnessed in the US, and whatever is happening at Westminster, the people can generally go about their business. In conclusion, I must admit a vested interest. The last time the US federal government shutdown was in 1995. At the time I was a PhD student carrying out research at the Eisenhower Presidential Library, in Abilene, Kansas in the American mid-West. When the government shutdown, the library closed and I was left twiddling my thumbs with no idea when the library would reopen. Abilene is a nice place, and the people are lovely, but aside from the Greyhoud Hall of Fame, the Eisenhower Library really is the only attraction. I eventually cut my losses and flew back to the UK, saving enough of my meagre research grant to return at a later date. My perception of the whole episode wasn’t enhanced when I later discovered that at precisely the moment I was kicking my heels in the mid-West, in Washington, President Bill Clinton, who in my view should have been working night and day to resolve the impasse, was enjoying himself in a White House bathroom with a young intern, there’s nothing about that in the Constitution.

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