Public opinion and the future of the monarchy

It was announced this week that the Queen would not be laying a wreath at the Cenotaph at this year’s remembrance service, but would watch the ceremony alongside her husband, the Duke of Edinburgh, from a balcony at the Foreign Office. The wreath will be laid by her son and heir, Prince Charles. The Queen is now 91 and the Duke of Edinburgh is 96, and this is a sensible and understandable decision. The Duke of Edinburgh retired from all public duties earlier this year, and there has been a gradual rolling back of the Queen’s roles. Younger members of the royal family have taken on some of her more arduous duties, most notably overseas trips, with Prince Charles naturally taking her place at many of the more formal events, such as the biannual Commonwealth Heads of Government meetings.

This is a natural development but it does, perhaps, raise questions about the long-term future of the monarchy. While it is to be hoped that the Queen lives a long and healthy life, Britain will have to adjust to an increasingly elderly monarch and someone else will inevitably ascend to the throne. How the public responds to these changes may have a long term impact on the monarchy.

Public support for the monarchy

Monarchy1There is little doubt that the British public are strongly committed to the monarchy. Opinion polls consistently indicate that less than one in five would like Britain to become a republic while around three quarters favour Britain remaining a monarchy. Moreover, support for the monarchy remains extraordinarily stable. Even at the time of the death of Princess Diana in 1997, when polls indicated some dissatisfaction with the Palace’s response, support for Britain remaining a monarchy held steady. As shown in the graph above, there is even some evidence that support for the monarchy has increased in recent years.

Moreover, when presented with the options for an alternative head of state, support for monarchy is even higher. In an Ipsos-Mori poll from 2016 which asked whether Britain should continue to have a King or Queen as head of state or an elected President, 86% supported retaining a monarch, while only 12% supported moving to an elected President.

It is also apparent that a large proportion of the public not only like the monarchy, but also think it is positively beneficial to Britain. Polling by Ipsos Mori between 1984 and 2002 indicated that while there was a fall in the proportion of people who thought Britain would be ‘worse off’ if it abolished the monarchy, this view was still held by more people than those who felt it would not make a difference. In more recent polling by YouGov from 2015, 68% of respondents agreed that the monarchy was ‘good for Britain’, while in Opinium polls from earlier this year, 70% thought Britain is perceived more positively abroad because of the monarchy, while 66% believed the monarchy benefitted the economy.

Personal approval ratings

It is, however, difficult to disaggregate public support for the monarchy from the personal approval enjoyed by the Queen. The Queen enjoys a level of personal support which exceeds that for the monarchy as an institution. In four polls, taken by Ipsos-Mori between 2006 and 2016, between 85 and 90% said they were satisfied with way the Queen was doing her job, with those expressing dissatisfaction in single figures, giving a net approval rating consistently over 80 points.

In contrast support for other members of the royal family is lower and also less stable. In the same Ipsos Mori poll from 2016, 71% were satisfied that Prince Charles was doing a good job, 15 points lower than satisfaction with the Queen, with 11% believing he was doing a bad job. This was nevertheless a considerable improvement on 1998 when Charles’ net approval rating dipped to 39 points. In September 2016, ICM asked a series of questions about how well or badly people felt different members of the royal family were doing in their current public role. In total 72% thought the Queen was doing a good job, with 47% agreeing she is doing a very good job. In contrast, only 47% felt that Prince Charles was doing a good job, and only 14% the he was doing a very good job, while a total of 15% thought he was doing a bad job.

A life sentence?

It is periodically mooted that the monarchy should skip a generation and pass over Charles, directly to his son, Prince William. Barring an untimely death this is highly unlikely, but support for the younger royals is higher than for the current heir to the throne. ICM found that 71% felt that William was doing a good job, and 67% that Harry is doing a good job in his current role. In 2016, Ipsos Mori gave Prince William a net approval rating of +73 compared to +60 for his father.

There is, however, little support for the Queen stepping down to make way for her son or grandson. In a poll taken to mark her 90th birthday in 2016, only one in five expressed support for the Queen abdicating, while 70% wanted her to remain on the throne for life. There was little more support when the same question was couched in terms of retirement rather than abdication, this was supported by 32%, while 61% still wanted the Queen to go on for life.

The public, however, appears somewhat more divided on whether Charles should forego his inheritance in favour of his son. In a series of polls on this question by Ipsos Mori, despite an obvious dip in 1997, the majority of the public consistently think that Charles should not give up his right to the throne in favour of William, but only by a relatively small margin, with between 47 and 64% believing Charles should not give up the throne.

The long-term future of the monarchy

The monarchy is undoubtedly secure as long as the Queen remains on the throne. If public support is a factor, the long-term future is, perhaps, less clear. Support for retaining the monarchy is significantly higher among those who are older. In Ipsos Mori’s latest poll on this issue, 84% of those over 55 supported retaining the monarchy, compared to 66% of 18-34 age group. This is still a significant majority, but amongst 18-24 year olds 47% favoured Britain becoming a republic while 43% wanted to retain the monarchy. There is little difference in support for the monarchy across England and Wales, but republicanism does appears to have more support in Scotland, with one in five favouring a republic compared to, for example, one in ten in the North of England.


The public also have some doubts about the long-term future of the monarchy. According to an Ipos Mori poll in 2012, while 90% expressed the belief that Britain would still have a monarchy in 10 years’ time, that had dropped by a third to 60% when asked if Britain would be a monarchy in 50 years and by over a half to 42% when people were asked to consider the next 100 years. Although in a similar poll for YouGov in 2015, 62% supported the view that the monarchy would still be around in 100 years.

What is more clear is that Charles is less popular, in some polls considerably less popular, than his mother. His sons’ generation enjoys greater support. This may be because they are young and attractive, producing children and appear relatively accessible. In terms of presenting a positive image of the monarchy, William and Harry are probably doing a good job. However, they will need to continue doing this for as very long time before William becomes King.

One reason why the Queen is so popular is that she has been on the throne for a very long time. Anyone under the age of 65 can remember no other monarch. The Queen was 25 when her father died and she ascended to the throne. She was recently married, had two young children and gave birth to two more after becoming Queen. This young family were every bit as interesting and appealing as the current generation of young royals. Since then the royal family has weathered some personal storms and the country, and its place in the world, has changed beyond all recognition, but the Queen has remained a remarkably stable fixture.

However, because she has reigned for so long, in the years ahead Britain will need to adapt to a very different monarch and monarchy. The Queen will age and may well retreat more fully from public life. Her successors will not sit on the throne for anywhere near as long. If the Queen lives as long as her mother, Charles will be 78 when he ascends to the throne. If he lives as long, William will be 68 when he becomes King, William’s son older still. Unless fate intervenes, for a long period Britain is likely to have a series elderly monarchs with relatively short reigns. Sustaining popular support for the monarchy in such circumstances may well be a challenge.

Ipsos Mori Royal Family/Monarchy trends index page.

YouGov Royal Family index page.

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Parliamentary Private Secretaries and the irresistible rise in the payroll vote

The role of unpaid Parliamentary Private Secretaries (PPS) and the impact of these appointments on the size the payroll vote has been something of a preoccupation of this blog. I first wrote about the payroll vote in a post in 2013, which showed how the number of PPSs had increased more than fourfold over the last century, from less than 10 to over 40. It argued that these unpaid positions, which are often seen as the first rung on the Ministerial ladder, are used by governments as a means of promoting loyalty amongst its own MPs, effectively increasing the number of guaranteed votes in Parliament. By 2013, when counted alongside paid, (and unpaid), Ministerial positions, this meant that 39% of coalition MPs held government posts which they would need to resign if they wished to vote against the government.

Another problem, which was discussed in this post in 2015, is that it is often quite difficult to find out which, and crucially, how many, MPs hold positions as Parliamentary Private Secretaries. Prior to the 2010 general election the Conservative Party promised to make government more transparent, and following the election did publish a list of PPSs. However, this list was never updated and, although such a list presumably always exists, it has proved remarkably difficult to track down. Following the 2015 general election after unsuccessful attempts to track down a list of PPSs from various sources including the Houses of Commons library, I was eventually able to secure a list, by effectively submitting a Freedom of Information request to the Cabinet Office. This list, which was published on this blog, has been widely used including by the House of Commons library.

It is therefore, pleasing to note that following the general election this summer the current government published a full list of Parliamentary Private Secretaries on the government website. This is a positive development and it is to be hoped that, unlike in 2010, the list is kept updated following reshuffles and elections.

The list reveals that there are currently 46 Parliamentary Private Secretaries, five more than following the 2015 general election. There has also been a change in the allocation of PPSs. The Prime Minister now has two, George Hollingbery and Seema Kennedy. Secretaries of State all have their own PPS, but only one Minister of State, Brandon Lewis the Immigration Minister, is now listed as having a PPS. While most government departments have retained two PPSs, in a change from previous practice the second PPS is designated as supporting the ‘Ministerial team’ rather than the Minister of State. This may be a more accurate reflection of their role, it may also be designed to avoid the criticism that allocating second-tier Ministers their own PPS looked rather like padding out the payroll vote. The Home Office, inexplicably, has four PPSs attached to it, supporting the Secretary of State, Amber Rudd, the Minister of State, Brandon Lewis, and two further PPSs supporting the rest of the Ministerial team. It is not clear why this is the case, the Ministerial team at the Home Office, which comprises six Ministers, is no larger than several other government departments including the FCO, the DWP and the Cabinet Office.

Finally, what does all of this mean for the payroll vote? Without a majority the government’s ability to ensure the support of its own members is clearly crucial, and without any drop in the number of Ministerial and PPS appointments, the proportion of MPs who are bound to support the government has inevitably increased. There are currently 83 Ministers in the House of Commons and 18 Whips, although five of these hold more than one post. Which means that 96 MPs are Ministers or Whips. When added to the 46 PPSs, this means the payroll vote in the House of Commons is comprised of 142 MPs (10 more than in 2015). 45% of Conservative MPs must now vote with the government or resign their post. Calls to limit the size of the payroll vote are often heard from observers of parliament and occasionally from those who sit within it, but clearly the temptation to draw ever more MPs into the cosy embrace of government, continues to prove irresistible to those in power.

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Why the general election results in Lincoln reflect the national picture


The general election results in Lincolnshire were to some extent a microcosm of the country as a whole. The Conservatives failed to make gains where they hoped and lost where they were expected to hang on. In contrast, Labour held seats they were expected to lose and unexpectedly made gains from the Conservatives. The UKIP vote collapsed, in a what had been a regional stronghold, but this benefitted Labour at least as much as the Conservatives.

The collapse in the UKIP vote was perhaps the most significant feature of this general election. Contrary to expectations while this did see voters turn back to the Conservatives, it also benefitted the Labour Party. In 2015, UKIP came second in five out of the seven constituencies in Lincolnshire. In last week’s election, UKIP were beaten into third or fourth place across the county, with the Conservatives and Labour taking first and second place in all seven constituencies.

Although Labour only took one seat in Lincolnshire it is now in a stronger position to contest seats in the next election, which may not be very far away. The party also held onto seats in Scunthorpe and Grimsby where it was anticipated that UKIP voters might switch to the Conservatives.

Another interesting question posed by this election was what would happen to ‘remain’ supporting MPs in ‘leave’ voting constituencies. Results in this region demonstrated how ‘remain’ voting MPs from both parties held off the UKIP challenge. In Grimsby, in which an estimated 70% voted to leave the EU in last year’s referendum, Labour’s Melanie Onn held the seat increasing her share of the vote. More significantly in Boston and Skegness, the most Eurosceptic constituency in the country with three out of four voters backing Brexit, the UKIP leader Paul Nuttall was defeated by the ‘remain’ voting Conservative, Matt Warman.

The Conservative loss in Lincoln was the most dramatic result in this region and in a number of respects reflected the national picture. Lincoln has been held by the party in government since 1974 and is often presented as a bellwether seat, changing hands when the government does. This situation changed dramatically last week.

The Conservatives could be forgiven for thinking they could hang on in Lincoln. Although Lincoln is a marginal constituency the Conservatives managed to increase their majority in 2015 and were perhaps assuming they could increase it again this time. However, such complacency was a failing of the Conservative campaign nationally and was also evident in Lincoln. Karl McCartney’s reluctance to take part in head-to-head debates with the other candidates reflected Theresa May’s unwillingness to participate in TV debates with Jeremy Corbyn. Such debates are now an established feature of election campaigns. Whatever their objections to the format, candidates failure to engage with the media can easily be construed as a reluctance to engage with the electorate.

The Conservatives also failed to commit the kind of resources to the campaign in Lincoln that they had two years earlier. In 2015, a succession of Conservative frontbenchers visited Lincoln and David Cameron chose the city to launch his English manifesto. Lincoln did not, however, feature in Theresa May’s campaign trail this time. In contrast, both Jeremy Corbyn and the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell visited the city. The assumption that a seat in which the Conservatives had only managed to increase their majority by less than 400 votes in 2015 was now safe, was the kind of complacency which cost the Conservatives their majority, both locally and nationally.

Another feature of the national results which is likely to have had an impact in Lincoln was the dramatic increase in turnout amongst young voters. It is estimated that turnout amongst younger voters increased from around 40% in 2015 to over 70% this time. Moreover, in contrast to older voters, polls indicate that the 18-24 age group was much more likely to vote Labour than Conservative. This is a demographic that the parties have tended to ignore in the past because of the low turnout amongst young people, they cannot afford to ignore them in future.

In other constituencies with a large student population most notably in Canterbury, Leeds and Sheffield, the student vote appears to have had a significant impact. This also seems to have been the case in Lincoln. With two universities in the city, students comprise up 15% of the electorate in Lincoln. Significant efforts were made to get out the vote among students in the city. While not all of them would have voted Labour, a large proportion will have done. Labour’s position on tuition fees undoubtedly attracted support, young people are also likely to be opposed to the hard Brexit advocated by Theresa May, while Karl McCartney’s well-documented position on issues such as gay marriage is also likely to have alienated younger voters.

The 2017 general election was a salutary reminder of the importance of election campaigns and the dangers of taking the voter for granted. The Conservatives were complacent in calling an election which they assumed would deliver an increased majority, and both locally and nationally, underestimated the impact of UKIP’s decline and the increase in support for Labour among young voters. With another general election in the near future a distinct possibility, it is not a mistake they can afford to make again.

This post first appeared on the website of the Lincolnshire Echo.

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What challenges have faced the China-UK relationship since the handover of Hong Kong and how have these challenges been overcome?

IMG_2100International Relations student, Natalie Read-Bone, was winner of the 2017 Baylis, Smith and Owens prize for the best first year essay on international politics, awarded by the University of Lincoln School of Social and Political Sciences. Natalie’s essay on Britain’s relationship with China below, reflects on the undoubted tensions in that relationship since the handover of Hong Kong in 1997 but also suggests the underlying priorities which have allowed some of these tensions to be overcome, and which will be crucial to the development of a positive and healthy relationship in the future.


The relationship between Britain and China has been a “long and complex” one (Brown, 2016, p.6), with the UK being the first of the Western countries to recognise the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1950, the relationship has been described by the British Embassy Beijing as “strong and constructive” (British Embassy Beijing, 2017). The reversion of Hong Kong from British to Chinese sovereignty in 1997 created possibilities for a “new chapter” of even more “constructive relations” between the two countries (Breslin, 2004, p.409). However, the relationship since the 1997 handover has been a volatile one, in which the relations have reached both incredible lows and incredible highs, and the overall relationship has been increasingly unpredictable (Brown, 2016, p.6). Both China and the UK have utilised trade and soft power to improve the relationship; after 1997 the UK aimed to develop “commercial opportunities” and promote positive social and political change in China (Breslin, 2004, p.409). Trade has been increasing since 2004 and China is now the UK’s second largest import partner – in 2014 imports were worth £37.6billion and exports £16.7billion (Office for National Statistics, 2015). On the other hand, the multiple challenges faced, have varied in size – from overarching aspects of society such as human rights, to personal disputes with British leaders. Despite this, in the “successful” 2015 State Visit to the UK, Chinese president Xi Jinping is said to have established a “Global Partnership” that represented both countries commitment to strengthening the cooperation in this new “Golden Era” (British Embassy Beijing, 2017). In a time when Britain is negotiating its exit from the European Union, its foreign relations, particularly those with China, are of significant importance. Therefore, it is essential to analyse the challenges that these relationships have faced and the ways in which they have been overcome, in order to be fully prepared for future developments.

One of the major challenges that has faced the China-UK relationship is China’s approach to human rights. China has been accused of systematically curtailing many human rights (Human Rights Watch, 2015) whilst promoting the “China Model of Democracy”, which aims to enhance economic growth “at the expense of civil and political rights” (Subedi, 2015, p.437). It is not just the UK that are opposed to China’s lack of human rights, it is said that many in Hong Kong also see the PRC as a threat to their freedoms and rights (Krumbein, 2014, p.156). Freedom of expression and freedom of press are two areas that are frequently hindered by the Chinese State. A recent example of the breach of freedom of expression was the arrest of at least 20 people in March 2016, in connection to an open letter that called for President Xi’s resignation (Amnesty International, 2016). China’s public service broadcasting (PSB) policy has also been accused of “prioritizing social order” over the political and civil rights of individuals (Chin, 2012, p.898), with the government controlling and censoring media with the aim of propagating government policies (Krumbein, 2014, p.152). Some Chinese academics believe that PSB is symbolic for its move towards democracy and transparency, however one of the State policy-makers disputes its role in upholding citizens’ civil and political rights (Chin, 2012, p.903).

China’s human rights record has caused a number of moral issues in regards to the UK’s relations with China. The appearance of China on the shortlist for the 2000 Olympic games for example, caused a global uproar, with countries claiming that the human rights reputation that China carried was in opposition to Olympic values. The European parliament urged that Beijing was rejected and the UK foreign minister agreed that Beijing would be a “bad choice” (Keys, 2016, p.9). These conflicting desires created a temporary divide between China and the UK. The UK also experienced a divide with Europe in its approach to human rights in China, as it continued bilateral negotiations on the matter whilst other European states did not (Breslin, 2004, p.144).

In fact, in overcoming the challenge of human rights, the UK has been very open and efficient when working with China. Throughout 2015 the UK “cooperated with China on projects in priority areas including torture prevention, the death penalty, women’s rights, and civil society” (Foreign and Commonwealth Office, 2017). It can definitely be suggested that China is making a significant attempt at improving its human rights, and has enacted almost 250 laws related to human rights over the last three decades (Subedi, 2015, p.440). The problem however has not been completely eradicated and requires continued development with the assistance of the UK, if the UK wishes to continue and strengthen the relationship with China. If this does not happen and China does not fulfil the protection of human rights this will “eventually stifle China’s economic development” (Subedi, 2015, p.451), decreasing its attractiveness and influence on the rest of the world, including the UK.

Another, arguably more complicated, challenge that has faced the China-UK relationship since the 1997 handover, is the rise in the Chinese military.  This is arguably more complicated than human rights as it also largely involves the US; whilst the UK has taken a cooperative stance to the growing military, commending the modernization and looking for closer military cooperation (Chinese Embassy, 2012), the US has become incredibly concerned with the growth, and has consequently engaged with a “pivot” of 60 percent of its “naval and aerospace power” towards the Asia Pacific (Evans, 2013, p.165). The challenge of the growing military has been present for decades, it has been suggested that the build-up began under Deng Xiaoping (Basu and Chatterji, 2016, p.3) and that by 1998 China was rivalling the US on military power ((Bernstein and Munro 1998) Breslin, 2004, p.415). One of the key indicators of the increasing military power is the Chinese defence budget, that has only become available due to the high rate of economic growth in China (Cordesman, 2014, p.65); in 2014 the defence budget was $130 billion (US) – a rise of 12.2 percent, and in 2015 it had risen a further 10 percent to $145 billion (US) (Basu and Chatterji, 2016, p.5).

This growing military tension between China and the US has created an indirect challenge for China and the UK; the UK has been making efforts to improve its relationship with China since the reversion of Hong Kong in 1997, and wishes to continue this into the future, however, historically British alliances lie with America, with the close relations between the two Western countries termed the “special relationship” (Dumbrell, 2009, p.64). Again, this an issue made more sensitive by the recent vote for Britain to exit the European Union, as the UK will need to be developing and expanding its diplomatic relationship with both China and the US.

This is not a challenge that has been overcome but one that has simply been moderated with the maintenance of strong relations with both China and the US. There is arguably a lack of a physical problem to overcome, as it has been suggested that whilst China may have military power, they must still acquire the ability to utilise it – in doing so they must overcome the problem of an ageing population decreasing potential military personnel, and an increasing demand for better pay for personnel (Basu and Chatterji, 2016, p.26). It is also suggested that the main aim of the Chinese military build-up is to ensure an “active defence” as opposed to the US view that China is preparing for war (Basu and Chatterji, 2016, p.25). China is a “major trading partner and exporter” for the US (Cordesman, 2014, p.65), this will be key to overcoming this challenge. Highlighting the economic importance and interdependence of both countries’ economies will be crucial in maintaining peace, and allowing the UK to continue building its relationships with both China and the US.

The China UK relationship has not just experienced large societal and political challenges such as military disputes and human rights abuses, it has also faced challenges on a much more personal level. One of the most significant of these personal disputes came in 2012 following a public meeting with the then prime minister, David Cameron, and “exiled Tibetan spiritual leader”, the Dalai Lama. Following the meeting, the relations between China and the UK were plunged into “the deep freeze” as a number of meetings with Senior UK ministers were cancelled by the Chinese government (Financial Times, 2015).

Relations between China and Tibet have been controversial for a long period of time, Tibet used to be considered its own country until China invaded in the 1950s. Now Tibet is considered an autonomous region of China. Tibet has always been a very strongly Buddhist area, which has always been “threatening and difficult” for the Chinese state to deal with (Mukherjee, 2015, p.61). Following the invasion and the subsequent Chinese suppression of Tibet, the Dalai Lama was forced into exile. Since then, China has closed 99 percent of Tibetan monasteries and has banned images of the Dalai Lama (Free Tibet).

China’s foreign ministry had warned the UK government to consider the “serious consequences” of meeting with the Dalai Lama, and after the meeting, stated that the actions of the British leaders had “seriously interfered with China’s internal affairs, undermined China’s core interests, and hurt the feelings of the Chinese people”. The foreign ministry later announced concerns that the meeting with the Dalai Lama, who is “regularly vilified by the Chinese government” and is still living in exile with the Tibetan government (Mukherjee, 2015, p.73), was showing support for Tibetan independence and anti-China forces (BBC, 2012).

This put a tremendous strain on China-UK relations and required strong efforts by the Cameron-Osborne government to overcome the tensions. After nearly a year of very little ministerial contact between the two countries, David Cameron was finally able to get approval to go to China to talk with either president Xi or the Chinese prime minister. In an interview prior to the meeting in China, a Chinese H.E Ambassador gave an interview to Chinese media in the UK about China UK relations, in which he stated that the only significant issue was a lack of political mutual trust. This was therefore one the topics discussed in the meeting of the heads of state (Chinese Embassy, 2013a). Following the meeting the Chinese Embassy stated that the two countries were of significant economic importance to each other and that they should “push for long-term healthy development of bilateral cooperation” (Chinese Embassy, 2013b). Whilst the potential for increased trade and investment had left the Chinese premier describing the relationship as “indispensable”, it would seem that the former UK prime minister did not successfully repair relations with the Chinese citizens, as Chinese media called Britain “replaceable” as Britain was “no longer a big country” (BBC, 2013). This could be seen as an opportunity for the UK to improve its public diplomacy in China as a form of soft power (Nye, 2008, p.94).

The China UK relationship has been extremely volatile since the handover of Hong Kong in 1997 (Brown, 2016, p.6). Some aspects have been positive, i.e. the increase in trade and the promotion of positive political and social change (Breslin, 2004, p.409) whilst some have been challenging, i.e. the growing military (Basu and Chatterji, 2016, p.3) threatening the US UK special “relationship” (Dumbrell, 2009, p.64). The important thing to note however, is that any challenges that have faced the China UK relationship have been overcome, either by increasing trade opportunities, highlighting the economic interdependence of countries or working cooperatively to develop new social standards. When faced with challenges in the future it will be important to reflect on the actions taken to relieve tensions in the past, this will be crucial to maintaining a positive and healthy China-UK relationship, which will be at the top of UK priorities as it negotiates its exit from the European Union.


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General Election 2017: constituency profiles – Lincolnshire

In electoral terms the area between the Humber and the Wash is to some extent a microcosm of England. Labour is well represented in the urban industrial constituencies in the north. To the south, the largely rural county of Lincolnshire is dominated by the Conservatives. There are pockets of support for UKIP in the less affluent coastal communities to the east and declining support for the Liberal Democrats in the south of the county. Labour does not dominate in the county town of Lincoln as it does in the nation’s capital, but it does control the city council. Lincoln is something of a bellwether constituency and is the most marginal of the greater Lincolnshire constituencies.

There are 11 parliamentary constituencies in the three counties of North Lincolnshire, North East Lincolnshire and Lincolnshire. Two of those seats, Scunthorpe and Great Grimsby, are currently held by Labour and the remainder are Conservative. Although there was no change in any of these 11 constituencies in the 2015 general election, a number of the seats were keenly fought. This was partly the result of a growth in support for UKIP in the region, and also because a number of prominent local MPs stood down in 2015, most notably in Great Grimsby and Boston & Skegness, leaving parties without an incumbent advantage.

The loss of any of these seats in 2017 would be significant for the party concerned. As the most marginal of the 11 seats, Lincoln would appear the most likely to fall, but the constituency looks safer than it has in the past and the Conservatives are confident of holding on. Labour may feel less secure in Scunthorpe and Great Grimsby.

Attitudes towards the EU may have a significant impact on voting in the region. In last year’s referendum, 59% of voters in the East Midlands voted to leave the European Union and the region contains some the most Eurosceptic constituencies in the country. UKIP have enjoyed considerable support in local government across the region and came second in five of these eleven constituencies the last time they were contested. However, despite considerable efforts UKIP have failed to turn this into electoral success at Westminster and in last month’s local elections in Lincolnshire UKIP lost all of its seats on the county council. If the collapse in the UKIP vote is mirrored in the general election, where those voters transfer their support may have a significant impact on the outcome in a number of constituencies.

This post seeks to provide an overview of the seats in the greater Lincolnshire area and review the prospects for the 2017 general election.

North Lincolnshire

Brigg and Goole

The constituency of Brigg and Goole was created in 1997 and sits on the border of North Lincolnshire and the East Riding of Yorkshire. The seat comprises the Labour voting port town of Goole and a rural hinterland around the market town of Brigg. It is by no means obvious territory for either of the main parties. The constituency is overwhelmingly white, with 95% of residents born in the UK, an estimated 66% of whom voted to leave the EU in last year’s referendum.

The seat was held by Labour from 1997 until the 2010 general election, when it was won by the Conservative, Andrew Percy on a huge swing from Labour. Percy consolidated his position in 2015 with 53% of the vote and a majority of over 11,000. Percy, a former teacher and Hull City Councillor is a prominent local figure. His national profile was enhanced by his appointment as Minister for the Northern Powerhouse in 2016.

Brigg and Goole is the kind of seat Labour need to win to return to the sunny uplands of 1997-2005 but it is unlikely to happen at this election.


Scunthorpe is more natural Labour territory. Like Brigg and Goole it was created in 1997. The town of Scunthorpe is the third largest urban area in the region after Grimsby and Lincoln. The town is dominated by the steelworks on which a large number of jobs depend. This is a precarious industry and closure was threated in 2014 when Tata Steel announced its intention to sell. The steelworks were sold to an investment company in 2016 for £1, and to the delight of many in the town reopened as British Steel Ltd.

Labour have held the seat since 1997, although their majority has fallen from over 14,000 to a little over 3,000 in 2015. The MP, Nic Dakin is the former principal of John Leggot College in Scunthorpe. He was elected in 2010 when he took over from the disgraced MP, Elliot Morley, who stood down following his imprisonment for false accounting in relation to his parliamentary expenses.

Although once a safe Labour seat, Scunthorpe is one of two Conservative target seats in the region, alongside Great Grimsby, both of which could fall if Labour have a bad night. Scunthorpe is the most delicately balanced. It would only require a 4.24% swing to the Conservatives to unseat Labour. However, Dakin is probably in a safer position than his colleague, Melanie Onn, in Great Grimsby. Having been MP since 2010 he is more well-established and may attract the gratitude of some voters for his role in brokering a deal to keep the steelworks open.

North East Lincolnshire

Great Grimsby

Grimsby is one of the oldest parliamentary constituencies in the country, having sent representatives to parliament since 1295. It is now an almost entirely urban constituency comprising the docks and historic fishing port. Although it retains a fish market most fish are now flown in from Iceland and the declining fishing industry has been a touchstone for Eurosceptic support in the town. With relatively high levels of unemployment and deprivation Grimsby epitomises the ‘left behind’ voters disillusioned with the traditional parties and strongly opposed to Britain’s membership of the EU. In last year’s referendum 71% of voters in Grimsby said that Britain should leave the EU.

The seat was held by the flamboyant Labour MP and former TV presenter, Austin Mitchell from 1977 to 2015. However, like Scunthorpe, Grimsby has seen a gradual decline in Labour support and in his last general election in 2010, Mitchell secured only a slim majority of 714.  In 2015, Mitchell’s replacement, Melanie Onn, managed to increase that to over 4,540 but Great Grimsby is still high on the Conservative target list. A swing of 7% to the Conservatives would see it fall.

Onn was born and grew up in Grimsby but has only had two years to establish herself as the town’s MP. She is not from the Corbynite wing of the party and there were calls for her to be deselected when she supported a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn. She is also in the uncomfortable, but not uncommon, position of being a ‘remain’ MP in a constituency which voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU.

The seat was strongly targeted by UKIP in 2015. Their candidate, Victoria Ayling, had previously contested the seat for the Conservatives, almost wiping out Austin Mitchell’s majority in 2010. Onn’s campaign in 2015 was not helped by Mitchell’s claim that Labour could select ‘a raving, alcoholic, sex paedophile’ and still beat UKIP. Nevertheless, UKIP’s efforts in Grimsby have largely misfired. Although they secured 25% of the vote in 2015, they were beaten into third place by the Conservatives.

UKIP are once again targeting the seat, fielding the MEP and fisheries spokesman, Mike Hookem, a robust campaigner who was famously involved in a ‘scuffle’ with another UKIP MEP at the European Parliament in Strasbourg in 2016. However, the most likely scenario is a collapse in the UKIP vote which may benefit the Conservatives. The constituency could provide an interesting test for the theory that UKIP have acted as a ‘gateway drug’ for Labour voters moving to the Conservatives.


On its landward side Great Grimsby is surrounded by the constituency of Cleethorpes. Cleethorpes is, however, quite a different constituency than its neighbour. In addition to the seaside resort of Cleethorpes which is contiguous with Grimsby and the port of Immingham further up the Humber, the Cleethorpes constituency also comprises a significant Conservative-voting rural apron stretching south into Lincolnshire and west along the Humber.

The constituency was created in 1997 and was held by Labour until 2010 when it was won by the Conservative Martin Vickers. Vickers, who is a politics graduate from the University of Lincoln, had been an election agent for the Lincolnshire MP, Edward Leigh, and had unsuccessfully fought the seat in 2005.

Although Cleethorpes was targeted by both Labour and UKIP in 2015, Martin Vickers held onto the seat and increased his majority. Vickers is a vocal Eurosceptic which has helped him to see off the challenge from UKIP. His main challenge comes from Labour who beat UKIP into third place in 2015. Labour’s candidate is Peter Keith, who also fought the seat in 2015. He is the husband of the former Labour MP for the constituency, Shona McIsaac, who Vickers defeated to take the seat in 2010. Although Labour have long believed they can retake the seat, the Conservative majority of 7,893 looks pretty secure this time.

Cleethorpes is one of two seats in the region where all of the candidates in 2017 are men. The other is South Holland and the Deepings.



The large rural constituency of Gainsborough in the north-west of the county of Lincolnshire has been held by the veteran Conservative MP, Edward Leigh, since 1983, but the seat has elected Conservative MPs since 1924. Aside from the small towns of Gainsborough and Market Rasen, the constituency is largely comprised of open fields and pig farms.

The Labour candidate in the seat in 2015 was David Prescott, the son of the former Deputy PM, John Prescott. This had little discernible impact on the electorate and Leigh increased his majority to over 15,000, securing 53% of the vote in 2015. This year Prescott, who was a speechwriter for Jeremy Corbyn, failed to be selected for the much safer Labour seat of Hull West and Hessle, vacated by Alan Johnson. Gainsborough is one of the seats where UKIP, who came third in 2015, are not fielding a candidate. It is a Conservative certainty.

Louth and Horncastle

To the east of Gainsborough and the south of Cleethorpes is the constituency of Louth and Horncastle. Although, like Gainsborough, this is a predominantly rural constituency it does include some pockets of deprivation on the Lincolnshire coast around Mablethorpe, which have generated support for UKIP. There is also a scattering of Labour voters, notably in the market town of Louth, where the rock star Robert Wyatt delights local Conservatives by posting ‘Vote Labour’ posters in all of the windows of his town centre home.

Louth and Horncastle is a safe Conservative seat. Prior to 2015 it was held by the father of the House, Sir Peter Tapsell, who was first elected to Parliament under Harold Macmillan in 1959. Tapsell’s successor, Victoria Atkins, is a former barrister from London. In something of a break with tradition, in what is a very traditional county, the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats are all fielding women candidates in Louth and Horncastle.

Although Louth and Horncastle has not had anywhere near the levels of immigration of the neighbouring constituency of Boston and Skegness, there was strong support (70%) for leaving the EU in the 2016 referendum and UKIP came second in the constituency in the 2015 general election. Atkins supported Britain remaining in the EU, but has supported Theresa May’s approach to Brexit since then. She increased the Conservative majority in 2015, securing over 50% of the vote. We should expect little change this time and the main interest lies in whether Labour, the Liberal Democrats or UKIP come second.

Boston and Skegness

Boston and Skegness is one of the more interesting seats in the region. Famously the most Eurosceptic constituency in the country, an estimated 75% of voters in Boston and Skegness voted to leave the EU. The constituency comprises the market town of Boston, the seaside resort of Skegness and a large expanse of arable land. Tourism and agriculture provide the bulk of jobs in the constituency. Large numbers of migrant workers have been drawn to the constituency to work in the agricultural sector. 10% of the population of Boston were born outside of the UK, mainly in the new accession states of the EU. The response to the large influx of migrant workers in a small market town has been mixed. While some have expressed concerns about the pressures placed on services such as schools and hospitals, others argue that the influx of young families has prevented the closure of schools with declining rolls and ensured the retention of maternity provision at the local hospital.

The constituency has been held by the Conservatives since it was created in 1997. The previous Conservative MP, Mark Simmonds, who stood down prior to the 2010 general election, did not endear himself to local residents by complaining about the meagre level of his parliamentary expenses. His successor, the boyish, Matt Warman, pulled off the not inconsiderable feat of supporting ‘remain’ in the EU referendum against the wishes of the majority his constituents, largely by offering a dignified and considered defence of his position and refusing to embrace the ill-informed knockabout that characterised much of the referendum campaign.

UKIP slashed 8000 votes off the Conservative majority in Boston and Skegness in 2015, but still came in second. They will try to unseat the Conservatives again in 2017 and the seat has been targeted by the UKIP leader, Paul Nuttall. However, the prospects are not good for UKIP. The party lost all of its seats on the county council in May, Nuttall has proved somewhat accident prone as party leader and, unlike UKIP’s 2015 candidate, has no connection to the constituency.

South Holland and the Deepings

Situated to the south of Boston & Skegness, the constituency of South Holland and the Deepings, is a fenland constituency centred around the market town of Spalding. It is the Conservatives 10th safest seat in the country. The current MP, the transport Minister, John Hayes, has held the seat since 1997. His majority of 18,567 is somewhat lower than the almost 22,000 votes he secured in 2010, although he did increase his share of the vote in 2015 to 59%.

This is another seat in which support for leaving the EU exceeded 70%, but Hayes unlike his neighbour in Boston and Skegness was happy to support his constituents in this.  As in other seats in the region the main interest here is who comes second. UKIP came a distant second in 2015 with 22% of the vote. The Liberal Democrats were second in 2010 and Labour in 2005.

South Holland and the Deepings is one of two seats in the region where all of the candidates in 2017 are men. The other is Cleethorpes.

Grantham and Stamford

This is another safe Conservative seat in a largely rural constituency. The two towns of its name bookend the constituency. Grantham is, of course, the birthplace of Margaret Thatcher, but the town itself is largely Labour voting. This is not without its tensions. Proposals by the, Conservative dominated, county council to name the new Grantham bypass after Lady Thatcher caused a level of controversy not seen in the town  since the local museum was offered a statue of the former Prime Minister.

Labour support in Grantham is, however, more than balanced by Conservative voters in Stamford in the south of the constituency, home of the Burghley horse trials. The sitting MP, Nick Boles, has a majority of almost 19,000. Boles was a close friend of David Cameron and has held a number of Ministerial posts since first being elected in 2010. He has recently received treatment for cancer, but has, thankfully, announced that he will contest the 2017 election.

The only way Labour could take this constituency is if Boles crossed the floor of the House of Commons and defected to the Labour Party, which is, of course, exactly what his predecessor Quentin Davies did in 2007.

Sleaford and North Hykeham

This will be the third time in three years that the voters of Sleaford and North Hykeham have been given the opportunity to elect their MP. Stephen Phillips who was elected as the Conservative MP for the constituency in 2015 stood down in 2016 in opposition to the government’s approach to Brexit. Phillips, who supported Britain’s exit from the EU, was nevertheless frustrated at Theresa May’s unwillingness to allow Parliament to be involved in the process. The subsequent by-election was won by the Conservative candidate, Caroline Johnson, a consultant paediatrician who campaigned, amongst other things, against the proposed overnight closure of A&E at Grantham hospital.

Johnson secured more than 50% of the vote in the by-election, albeit on a very low turnout. Her nearest rival, the UKIP candidate, Victoria Ayling (who fought in Grimsby in 2015), won 13.5% of the vote. The by-election was most notable for the woeful performance of Labour, who came second in the constituency in 2015, and fourth after UKIP and the Liberal Democrats a little over a year later.

The 2017 general election should be a little different, not least because there will be almost half the number of candidates than 2016, and turnout should be higher. Nevertheless, it is hard to see the Conservatives doing anything other than increasing their majority. Labour must do better here.


Finally, the city of Lincoln. This should be the most interesting of seats. Lincoln claims to be the oldest constituency in the country and is often presented as a bellwether constituency, changing hands when the government does. It was Conservative from 1979 to 1997, Labour from 1997 to 2010 and Conservatives since then. However, prior to this Lincoln was a safe Labour seat from 1945 to the mid-1970s, and for a brief period in the mid-70s was represented by the independent Lincoln Democratic Labour MP, Dick Taverne.

The city has changed considerably in recent years. The creation of large housing developments to the south of the city have hollowed out the city centre prompting boundary changes which have added more rural and Conservative voting wards from the fringes. At the same time the presence of the university has brought into the city over 10,000 students, whose vote could be decisive, if they could be persuaded to vote.

The Conservatives have a fairly slender majority of 1,443 in Lincoln. The sitting MP, Karl McCartney held the seat against expectations in 2015 and increased his majority. Further reinforcing the impression that the seat is a good indicator of the national picture. McCartney is both an affable and abrasive figure who is prone to publicly remonstrating with those he feels have slighted him. Rather like the Prime Minister he has avoided head to head debates with the other candidates, prompting some criticism in the local media. He will, however, feel confident at having seen off Labour’s challenge twice already.

In truth the seat is not perhaps as marginal as McCartney’s slender majority would suggest. Boundary changes prior to 2010 added two heavily Conservative voting wards to the south of the city which largely cancel out Labour votes in the city. The Conservatives may congratulate themselves on holding on in Lincoln, but they are perhaps making rather heavy weather of what should be a much safer seat.

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